Footy tipping? Probably

Alumni Speakers Series

Have you ever completed the multiple choice part of an exam and felt you knew the answers to some questions but wanted to hedge your bets on others?

If so, then the University's probabilistic footy-tipping competition is for you. The competition lets you quantify how sure you are of the outcome of any given match - rewarding your bravado when you are right and penalising you if you shoot your mouth off and are wrong. 

This table shows the scoring system, giving examples of the probabilities that you might guess and the corresponding reward or penalty you would get depending on the outcome.

The competition has been overseen by Associate Professor David Dowe of the Clayton School of Information Technology since 1995 as a spin-off from his research with the late Chris Wallace and other colleagues.

The competition provides mathematical enhancement from primary school level all the way up to research level. Primary school kids can explore numbers between 0 and 1, older students of differential calculus can prove that the logarithmic scoring system rewards people who are good at guessing or estimating probabilities.

Associate Professor Dowe said the competition's scoring sytem offered tipsters a unique challenge. 

"Unlike scoring systems that count the number of correct guesses, this scoring system will give the same score to all entrants no matter how we frame the questions," Associate Professor Dowe said.

All are welcome to join for free and be part of the history of this competition as it starts its 18th year.