Climate change and sustainability

Climate Change, Wheat Yields and Farm Profitability in North Western Victoria: Projections and Adaptation Challenges

One of Australia’s top grain producing regions, the Wimmera and Mallee in Northwest Victoria, is likely to experience significantly hotter and drier conditions in coming decades,  climate projections in the recent IPCC (2021) Australasia Factsheet reveal.

In June 2018 a research project was initiated by the CDES, the Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics and Monash Business School’s Department of Economics, in collaboration with farmers, industry bodies, climate scientists and agricultural scientists, to explore the impacts of climate change on wheat cultivation and farm profitability in this area.

In contrast to most available Australian studies of climate change impacts on agriculture, this project utilised actual farm level data and an innovative methodological approach to shed light on the impact of unfolding climate change scenarios.

While the results are region-specific, we believe that the approach and methodology of the project have wider applicability.

The project was recently concluded with a detailed report provided to the Victorian Government’s Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), which sponsored the project.

This technical report presents a summary of the models, results and preliminary findings (see Appendix for detailed descriptions of the models and results) to stimulate discussion and comments, in advance of the detailed technical papers that are currently under preparation.

Read the technical report