A spatial stochastic SIR model for transmission networks

With application to COVID-19 epidemic in China


We evaluate the effect of mobility restriction policies on the spread of COVID-19 across 33 provincial regions in China, using data on daily human mobility across regions. The results show that the spread of the disease in China was predominantly driven by community transmission within regions and the lockdown policy introduced by local governments curbed the spread of the pandemic. Further, we document that Hubei was only the epicenter of the early epidemic stage. Secondary epicenters had already become established by late January 2020. The transmission from these epicenters substantially declined following the introduction of human mobility restrictions across regions


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