Uncertainty quantification and management in energy trading
Renewable energy resources are most often decentralized and have inherent characteristics of variability and uncertainty which make them more difficult to be controlled and dispatched. On the other hand, recent catastrophic events such as superstorms have greatly challenged the ability of a power system to restore to its normal state after being shocked by subsequent system disturbances. Increasing the penetration of renewable energy generation, if uncontrolled and unmanaged can jeopardize the resiliency and stability of the grid further. In contrast, if the current advances in the energy sector are harnessed properly, there is a huge potential for a more flexible and profitable yet reliable and stable grid.
The storage capabilities (electric vehicles, residential, etc.) and local generation made the previously passive consumers more proactive and flexible. Exploiting the flexibility provided by prosumers can alleviate the need for expensive grid reinforcements to deal with load growth and intermittent generation. However, control and management of prosumers will be much more complicated with many unknowns, risks and uncertainty not yet explored and identified. The adoption of smart grids requires future breakthroughs in the areas of developing more distributed or decentralized consumer-oriented market structures, improving uncertainty quantification of intermittent renewables and electricity demand and incorporating the quantified uncertainty in decision-making. This talk will touch few tools to characterize the interdependence structure of uncertainty among locations, various time steps and variables of interest and an energy market structure that allows for flexibility, competitiveness, and account for various sources of uncertainty.
Faranak Golestaneh is a senior analyst at the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). She received a Ph.D. in Electrical and Electronic Engineering in 2017 from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Her broad areas of research are energy markets, and uncertainty quantification of renewable energy generation and energy demand.