The Epidemiological Modelling Unit applies cutting-edge research methodologies to project the burden of disease across time, space and demographic groups, including predicting the likely future trajectory of diseases.
The Unit has been built on communicable disease modelling, with major research themes currently including tuberculosis, HIV and emerging infections (including Ebola). However, we are actively looking to expand our activities in non-communicable and demographic modelling. Specific methodologies employed by the Unit include calculus, linear algebra, software engineering, health economics, statistics, epidemiology and Bayesian inference.
Within the School, the Unit is closely linked to Biostatistics, CCRET and Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, with extensive overlap in both the methodology and content of the research of these Units. Active external collaborations include James Cook University, Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria, RMIT and IBM.
The overall aim of the Unit is to develop epidemiological models to relate non-communicable and communicable disease risk factors to disease onset and its subsequent course and impact. The research is intended to inform:
- patient understanding of the relationship between modifiable risk factors and disease outcome
- clinical practice, and in particular GPs' understanding of this relationship and their ability to use this understanding in helping their patients to modify their lifestyles and associated risk factors
- health policy development, both by assisting health policy makers to devise optimal health promotion and disease prevention strategies and by providing lobby and advocate groups and interested individuals with relevant, evidence-based information on risk factors and disease outcomes
- disease forecasting methods, for both communicable and non-communicable diseases
- translation and incorporation of cutting-edge data analytical methods into decision support tools
Dr Andrea Curtis
Dr Ella Zomer
Dr Arathi Arakala
Dr Amy Pinsent