Work Package 3: Scenario innovation and development
Leads
Key researchers
Key research questions
- How can people’s future practices, priorities, and expectations be effectively integrated into energy industry scenarios?
- What plausible energy futures could shape residential energy services, technologies, and policies by 2035 and 2050?
- Which future households and consumers are most vulnerable, and how will different scenarios impact their lives?
- How can scenario planners and forecasters meaningfully engage with people-centred energy futures?
Our approach
WP3 builds on the scenario-building methodology from the Digital Energy Futures project, refining and expanding it to create plausible, data-driven future scenarios that align with real-world social, economic, and environmental trends, including anticipated changes in weather and climate. These scenarios will support energy forecasting in WP4 and inform new product and service development in WP5.
Research methods
- Refining scenario methodologies – updating the Digital Energy Futures scenario-building method to align with current industry approaches and support energy modelling.
- Iterative scenario development – drawing on insights and foresights from WP1, WP2, WP5, WP6 and WP7, this work package will incorporate foresighting and design thinking to communicate possible futures.
- Persona development – Creating detailed household profiles that illustrate how different future households, particularly vulnerable consumers, will experience scenarios for future living.
Key outputs
- Scenarios for Future Living Reports (Years 2 and 3) – delivering people-focused energy scenarios that integrate with electricity sector planning and modelling in WP4 and both respond to, and inform, all other work packages.
By embedding people’s lived experiences into future energy scenarios, WP3 ensures that policy, planning, and innovation are grounded in the real-world perspectives of diverse people, helping shape a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable energy future.