Work Package 4: Modelling tools and processes

Bridging social insights and energy modelling

Traditional energy models focus heavily on technical and economic factors, but real-world energy use is shaped by people’s daily lives, choices, and behaviours. This work package develops new modelling tools and processes that integrate future-focused social insights into energy forecasting, planning, and strategy development.

Leads

Key researchers

Key research questions

  • How do current Australian energy models represent future Consumer Energy Resources (CER) adoption and flexibility, and what can be learned from international best practice?
  • How can foresights, speculations, and social research be integrated into energy plans, strategies, and forecasts?
  • What adaptations are needed to incorporate future living scenarios into existing modelling and planning processes?
  • How will different CER technologies, such as batteries and EVs, interact within Scenarios for Future Living, and what impact will this have on the energy system?

Our approach

WP4 translates qualitative consumer research from WP1 into quantitative models and datasets, ensuring that future energy projections reflect real-world behaviours and social change. This will help energy planners, industry leaders, and policymakers develop more accurate, responsive, and inclusive energy strategies.

Research methods

  • Interdisciplinary Energy Modelling Review – Analysing existing industry and academic approaches to integrating social data into energy models, identifying best practices and gaps.
  • Working group with energy forecasters and modellers – Engaging modelling experts, industry stakeholders, and policymakers to explore practical integration techniques for social data and foresights.
  • Developing quantitative data for future living – Creating datasets and modelling tools that reflect emerging social trends and energy behaviours, ensuring they can be integrated into existing electricity sector planning processes.
  • Modelling Scenarios for Future Living – Running simulations to explore the impact of different future energy scenarios on resource mix, infrastructure investment, and grid stability. Results will be compared with parallel modelling by CSIRO in WP7.

Key outputs

  • Open-source modelling tools and datasets – Online resources available throughout the project, enabling industry, policymakers, and researchers to explore the impact of different consumer pathways on the energy transition.

By embedding people-centred insights into energy modelling, WP4 ensures that Australia’s energy transition planning is more adaptive, realistic, and responsive to future consumer needs.