What is a theory of change (ToC)?
A Theory of Change (ToC) describes the positive change sought (the need) for a project/program. It details why the change matters, and provides a hypothesis or prediction for the mechanisms (the activities) that are required to bring about the change sought (the outcomes).
The ToC becomes a central prediction about how the desired change goals will be brought about from the project/program’s high level components of activity.
Essentially, a ToC provides a map of the activity components of a program/intervention and describes how stakeholders (collectively) agree to fit together these components to achieve the desired change outcomes. The ToC also details any underlying assumptions and/or limitations that could be confounding factors influencing the causality of activity components towards the achievement (or not) of desired changes (outcomes).
Example of a Theory of Change
Reproduced from DAWE 2020, Future Drought Fund Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework, Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Canberra, December. CC BY 4.0.
What benefits can using a Theory of Change bring?
When a project/program is developed collectively across stakeholder groups using a TOC it draws upon the expertise and experience of the various stakeholder types to ensure a more holistic intervention. This can make project/program implementation more effective as there is an increased clarity in the stakeholder roles, responsibilities, connection to each other and contribution (or hinder) to the project/program activity towards the achievement of intended goals.
This collaborative development of a ToC between evaluators and stakeholders can;
- better ensure the intervention (project/program) is right for the goals intended;
- design the project/program optimally around the collective stakeholder knowledge and experience available;
- help stakeholders to unpack, discuss and understand what activity is required to get to the desired outcomes;
- establish stakeholder agreement that the intervention and its theory are likely to achieve the desired outcomes;
- help stakeholders to identify the level of resources required for the project/program to be implemented (asses feasibility and achievability);
- support the identification of areas where project/program adaptations may need to be made where assumptions and limitations are identified;
- assist the identification and agreement of the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders for project/program achievement of outcomes;
- determine what evaluation questions are needed to assess project/program activity is progressing towards goals;
- identify appropriate indicators or other sources of evidence are best to assess project/program progress over various time frames.
Where the hypothesis for a program/intervention is proven null or negative (ie. the goal is not achieved), a well-designed ToC will help the evaluator distinguish between:
Essentially, having a high quality ToC can assist evaluators and stakeholders to understand how a program/intervention could be adapted to be delivered in a different way and thus be more likely achieve their desired goals.