CHE Seminar Series: Maternity benefits, consumption and labor supply - Estimating causal effects with bank transaction data
We estimate the causal effects of a generous maternity benefit introduced in Madrid in 2022 (MMB), which granted €500 per month from the fifth month of pregnancy until a child’s second birthday to mothers under age 31 with low or moderate income. We exploit the sharp eligibility cutoff on January 1, 2022, using a regression discontinuity design and high-frequency bank transaction data covering daily spending, earnings, and account balances. Eligible mothers received, on average, over €7,000 in MMB payments during the 29 months surrounding childbirth. Total spending increased by about €1,200, implying an average MPC of 0.16, with strong heterogeneity: the MPC is zero among higher-income mothers and rises to 0.41 among lower-income mothers, who show sizable increases in basic-necessity spending and sharp, short-lived spikes in expenditure after each deposit. Higher-income mothers exhibit no meaningful change in consumption and save more than half of the benefit, with no robust evidence of changes in labor earnings. Across administrative, survey, and transaction data, we find no aggregate decline in employment. Overall, the benefit alleviates liquidity constraints for lower-income mothers while leaving labor supply largely unaffected, with some evidence consistent with modest positive responses.
Speaker profile
Daniel Fernández Kranz is an Associate (Tenured) Professor of Economics, Chair of the Economics Department, and Vice-Dean for Economics at IE University School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs in Madrid. He is also a Research Fellow at IZA Institute of Labor Economics and serves as the Academic Director of the Master in Applied Economics at IE University.
Daniel is an empirical microeconomist whose research focuses on the economics of the family, gender, health, and public policy evaluation. He combines administrative data and large-scale survey data to analyze the impact of public policies on gender outcomes, with particular attention to labor market behavior, health, marriage, and fertility decisions. His work also examines how policies and social contexts shape gender norms and their effects on marriage, fertility, and overall well-being.
Weekly seminar series
As part of our Centre's vibrant research culture, we host a weekly seminar series. Visiting and invited researchers present current research relating to the economics of health and wellbeing, and the healthcare sector. Visitors are welcome to join these sessions where discussion and debate is encouraged.
For further information on our seminar series, please contact Trong-Anh.Trinh@monash.edu .
Event Details
- Date:
- 13 May 2026 at 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
- Venue:
- Caulfield campus, Building C, level 1, room C1.21
- Categories:
- CHE Seminar; General
Description
We estimate the causal effects of a generous maternity benefit introduced in Madrid in 2022 (MMB), which granted €500 per month from the fifth month of pregnancy until a child’s second birthday to mothers under age 31 with low or moderate income. We exploit the sharp eligibility cutoff on January 1, 2022, using a regression discontinuity design and high-frequency bank transaction data covering daily spending, earnings, and account balances. Eligible mothers received, on average, over €7,000 in MMB payments during the 29 months surrounding childbirth. Total spending increased by about €1,200, implying an average MPC of 0.16, with strong heterogeneity: the MPC is zero among higher-income mothers and rises to 0.41 among lower-income mothers, who show sizable increases in basic-necessity spending and sharp, short-lived spikes in expenditure after each deposit. Higher-income mothers exhibit no meaningful change in consumption and save more than half of the benefit, with no robust evidence of changes in labor earnings. Across administrative, survey, and transaction data, we find no aggregate decline in employment. Overall, the benefit alleviates liquidity constraints for lower-income mothers while leaving labor supply largely unaffected, with some evidence consistent with modest positive responses.
Speaker profile
Daniel Fernández Kranz is an Associate (Tenured) Professor of Economics, Chair of the Economics Department, and Vice-Dean for Economics at IE University School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs in Madrid. He is also a Research Fellow at IZA Institute of Labor Economics and serves as the Academic Director of the Master in Applied Economics at IE University.
Daniel is an empirical microeconomist whose research focuses on the economics of the family, gender, health, and public policy evaluation. He combines administrative data and large-scale survey data to analyze the impact of public policies on gender outcomes, with particular attention to labor market behavior, health, marriage, and fertility decisions. His work also examines how policies and social contexts shape gender norms and their effects on marriage, fertility, and overall well-being.
Weekly seminar series
As part of our Centre's vibrant research culture, we host a weekly seminar series. Visiting and invited researchers present current research relating to the economics of health and wellbeing, and the healthcare sector. Visitors are welcome to join these sessions where discussion and debate is encouraged.
For further information on our seminar series, please contact Trong-Anh.Trinh@monash.edu .