CHE Seminar Series: Tracing the genetic footprints of the UK National Health Service
Estimates of the impact of early-life events on surviving individuals may be distorted by selective survival or mortality, which is often difficult to detect. This paper introduces a method for identifying and quantifying this type of bias using genetic data. In the absence of selection, Polygenic Indices (PGIs), predetermined at conception, should be equally distributed across treatment and control groups. Systematic differences in PGIs following a shock or policy therefore indicate selective survival. We apply this approach to the introduction of the UK National Health Service (NHS) in July 1948, using data from the UK Biobank and a regression discontinuity design under local randomization. We find that the NHS reduced infant mortality by 6.5 per 1,000 births—a decline of 18.5%—likely due to increased hospital births. This mortality decline altered the genetic composition of surviving cohorts: NHS exposure increased PGIs for adverse conditions (e.g., depression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and decreased PGIs for positive traits (e.g., educational attainment, self-rated good health). Results hold true in sibling fixed effect designs, different survey data, and on PGIs directly linked to early-life conditions. The effects are primarily driven by the survival of individuals born in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. We identify a significant survival bias and highlight the novel use of genetic endowment data to quantify it, thereby enabling more valid and policy-relevant inference.
Speaker profile
Dr Nicolau Martin-Bassols is a research fellow at the Department of Economics, University of Bologna. He obtained his PhD from Monash University’s Centre for Health Economics in 2022. He specializes in applied microeconomics and micro-econometrics, with a focus on health, labor economics, and social genomics. His research explores the impact of genetics, familial investments, and policy interventions on the construction of health and human capital, as well as economic disparities.
Weekly seminar series
As part of our Centre's vibrant research culture, we host a weekly seminar series. Visiting and invited researchers present current research relating to the economics of health and wellbeing, and the healthcare sector. Visitors are welcome to join these sessions where discussion and debate is encouraged.
For further information on our seminar series, please contact Trong-Anh.Trinh@monash.edu.
Event Details
- Date:
- 10 September 2025 at 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
- Venue:
- Caulfield campus, Building H, level 9, room H9.14
- Categories:
- CHE Seminar; General
Description
Estimates of the impact of early-life events on surviving individuals may be distorted by selective survival or mortality, which is often difficult to detect. This paper introduces a method for identifying and quantifying this type of bias using genetic data. In the absence of selection, Polygenic Indices (PGIs), predetermined at conception, should be equally distributed across treatment and control groups. Systematic differences in PGIs following a shock or policy therefore indicate selective survival. We apply this approach to the introduction of the UK National Health Service (NHS) in July 1948, using data from the UK Biobank and a regression discontinuity design under local randomization. We find that the NHS reduced infant mortality by 6.5 per 1,000 births—a decline of 18.5%—likely due to increased hospital births. This mortality decline altered the genetic composition of surviving cohorts: NHS exposure increased PGIs for adverse conditions (e.g., depression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and decreased PGIs for positive traits (e.g., educational attainment, self-rated good health). Results hold true in sibling fixed effect designs, different survey data, and on PGIs directly linked to early-life conditions. The effects are primarily driven by the survival of individuals born in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. We identify a significant survival bias and highlight the novel use of genetic endowment data to quantify it, thereby enabling more valid and policy-relevant inference.
Speaker profile
Dr Nicolau Martin-Bassols is a research fellow at the Department of Economics, University of Bologna. He obtained his PhD from Monash University’s Centre for Health Economics in 2022. He specializes in applied microeconomics and micro-econometrics, with a focus on health, labor economics, and social genomics. His research explores the impact of genetics, familial investments, and policy interventions on the construction of health and human capital, as well as economic disparities.
Weekly seminar series
As part of our Centre's vibrant research culture, we host a weekly seminar series. Visiting and invited researchers present current research relating to the economics of health and wellbeing, and the healthcare sector. Visitors are welcome to join these sessions where discussion and debate is encouraged.
For further information on our seminar series, please contact Trong-Anh.Trinh@monash.edu.