Publications

Below are some publication highlights demonstrating the impact of our work. A full list of Unit Head A/Prof James Trauer’s publications is available here.

Ten career-best research outputs

Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave. Trauer JM, Lydeamore MJ, Dalton GW, Pilcher D, Meehan MT, McBryde ES, Cheng AC, Sutton B, Ragonnet R. Nature Communications. 2021 Nov 1;12(1):6266. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26558-4.

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study. Caldwell JM, de Lara-Tuprio E, Teng TR, Estuar MRJE, Sarmiento RFR, Abayawardana M, Leong RNF, Gray RT, Wood JG, Le LV, McBryde ES, Ragonnet R, Trauer JM. Lancet Regional Health Western Pacific. 2021 Sep;14:100211. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100211.

Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination. Jayasundara P, Peariasamy KM, Law KB, Abd Rahim KNK, Lee SW, Ghazali IMM, Abayawardana M, Le LV, Khalaf RKS, Razali K, Le X, Chong ZL, McBryde ES, Meehan MT, Caldwell JM, Ragonnet R, Trauer JM. Epidemics. 2021 Dec;37:100517. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100517.

Revisiting the Natural History of Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Bayesian Estimation of Natural Recovery and Mortality Rates. Ragonnet R, Flegg JA, Brilleman SL, Tiemersma EW, Melsew YA, McBryde ES, Trauer JM. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2021 Jul 1;73(1):e88-e96. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa602.

Timing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure explains variation in BCG effectiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Trauer JM, Kawai A, Coussens AK, Datta M, Williams BM, McBryde ES, Ragonnet R. Thorax. 2021 Nov;76(11):1131-1141. doi: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216794.

Risk of Active Tuberculosis in the Five Years Following Infection . . . 15%? Trauer JM, Moyo N, Tay EL, Dale K, Ragonnet R, McBryde ES, Denholm JT. Chest. 2016 Feb;149(2):516-525. doi: 10.1016/j.chest.2015.11.017.

Quantifying the rates of late reactivation tuberculosis: a systematic review. Dale KD, Karmakar M, Snow KJ, Menzies D, Trauer JM*, Denholm JT*. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2021 Oct;21(10):e303-e317. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30728-3. *Co-senior authors.

Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. Trauer JM, Denholm JT, Waseem S, Ragonnet R, McBryde ES. American Journal of Epidemiology. 2016 Jun 15;183(12):1138-48. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwv323.

Tuberculosis in migrants to Australia: Outcomes of a national screening program. Trauer JM, Williams B, Laemmle-Ruff I, Horyniak D, Caplice LVS, McBryde ES, Majumdar SS, Graham SM, Hellard ME. The Lancet Regional Health Western Pacific. 2021 Mar 26;10:100135. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100135.

Estimating the long-term effects of mass screening for latent and active tuberculosis in the Marshall Islands. Ragonnet R, Williams BM, Largen A, Nasa J, Jack T, Langinlur MK, Ko E, Rahevar K, Islam T, Denholm JT, Marais BJ, Marks GB, McBryde ES, Trauer JM. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2022 Mar 22:dyac045. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyac045. Online ahead of print.

Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia. McBryde ES, Meehan MT, Caldwell JM, Adekunle AI, Ogunlade ST, Kuddus MA, Ragonnet R, Jayasundara P, Trauer JM, Cope RC. Medical Journal of Australia. 2021 Nov 1;215(9):427-432. doi: 10.5694/mja2.51263.

2022

Mental health outcomes in Australian healthcare and aged-care workers during the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic. McGuinness SL, Johnson J, Eades O, Cameron PA, Forbes A, Fisher J, Grantham K, Hodgson C, Hunter P, Kasza J, Kelsall HL, Kirkman M, Russell G, Russo PL, Sim M, Singh K, Skouteris H, Smith KL, Stuart RL, Teede HJ, Trauer JM, Andrew Udy, Sophia Zoungas, Leder K. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022 Apr 19;19(9):4951. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19094951.

Estimating the long-term effects of mass screening for latent and active tuberculosis in the Marshall Islands. Romain Ragonnet, Williams BM, Largen A, Nasa Jr J, Jack T, Langinlur MK, Ko E, Rahevar K, Islam T, Denholm JT, Marais BJ, Marks GB, McBryde ES, Trauer JM. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2022 Mar 22;dyac045. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyac045. Online ahead of print.

Estimating tuberculosis drug resistance amplification rates in high-burden settings. Karmakar M, Ragonnet R, Ascher DB, Trauer JM, Denholm JT. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2022 Jan 24;22(1):82. doi: 10.1186/s12879-022-07067-1.

A multi-state model of a healthy aging population – secondary analysis of the ASPREE clinical trial data. Neumann JT, Thao LTP, Callander E, Carr PR, Qaderi V, Nelson MR, Reid CM, Woods RL, Orchard SG, Wolfe R, Polekhina G, Williamson JD, Trauer JM, Newman AB, Murray AM, Ernst ME, Tonkin AM, McNeil JJ. The Lancet Healthy Longevity. 2022 Feb;3(2):e89-e97. doi: 10.1016/S2666-7568(21)00308-1.

2021

Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia. McBryde ES, Meehan MT, Caldwell JM, Adekunle AI, Ogunlade ST, Kuddus MA, Ragonnet R, Jayasundara P, Trauer JM, Cope RC. Medical Journal of Australia. 2021 Nov 1;215(9):427-432. doi: 10.5694/mja2.51263.

Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave. Trauer JM, Lydeamore MJ, Dalton GW, Pilcher D, Meehan MT, McBryde ES, Cheng AC, Sutton B, Ragonnet R. Nature Communications. 2021 Nov 1;12(1):6266. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26558-4.

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study. Caldwell JM, de Lara-Tuprio E, Teng TR, Estuar MRJE, Sarmiento RFR, Abayawardana M, Leong RNF, Gray RT, Wood JG, McBryde ES, Ragonnet R, Trauer JM. Lancet Regional Health Western Pacific. 2021 Sep;14:100211. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100211.

Timing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure explains variation in BCG effectiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Trauer JM, Kawai A, Coussens AK, Datta M, Williams BM, McBryde ES, Ragonnet R. Thorax. 2021 Nov;76(11):1131-1141. doi: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216794.

2020

Time for a clear national COVID‐19 strategy. Trauer JM, Marais BJ, Ragonnet R, Savulescu J, McBryde ES. Medical Journal of Australia. 2021 Feb;214(2):94-94.e1. doi: 10.5694/mja2.50894. Epub 2020 Dec 8.

Role of modelling in COVID-19 policy development. McBryde ES, Meehan MT, Adegboye OA, Adekunle AI, Caldwell JM, Pak A, Rojas DP, Williams BM, Trauer JM. Paediatric Respiratory Reviews. 2020 Sep;35:57-60. doi: 10.1016/j.prrv.2020.06.013.

Revisiting the Natural History of Pulmonary Tuberculosis: a Bayesian Estimation of Natural Recovery and Mortality rates. Ragonnet R, Flegg JA, Brilleman SL, Tiemersma EW, Melsew YA, McBryde ES, Trauer JM. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2021 Jul 1;73(1):e88-e96. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa602. Epub 2020 Aug 7.

Heterogeneous infectiousness in mathematical models of tuberculosis: A systematic review. Melsew YA, Adekunle AI, Cheng AC, McBryde ES, Ragonnet R, Trauer JM. Epidemics. 2020 Mar;30:100374. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100374.

2019

Profiles of tuberculosis disease activation among contacts of patients with tuberculosis. Melsew YA, Cheng AC, McBryde ES, Denholm JT, Tay E-L, Ragonnet R, Trauer JM. European Respiratory Journal. 2019 Oct 10;54(4):1900353. doi: 10.1183/13993003.00353-2019.

Profiling Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission and the resulting disease burden in the five highest tuberculosis burden countries. Ragonnet R, Trauer JM, Geard N, Scott N, McBryde ES. BMC Medicine. 2019 Nov 22;17(1):208. doi: 10.1186/s12916-019-1452-0.

The role of super-spreading events in Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission: evidence from contact tracing. Melsew YA, Gambhir M, Cheng AC, McBryde ES, Denholm JT, Tay E-L, Trauer JM. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2019 Mar 12;19(1):244. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-3870-1.

2018

The Importance of Heterogeneity to the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis. Trauer JM, Dodd PJ, Gomes MGM, Gomez GB, Houben RMGJ, McBryde ES, Melsew YA, Menzies NA, Arinaminpathy N, Shrestha S, Dowdy DW. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2019 Jun 18;69(1):159-166. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciy938. Epub 2020 Nov 1.

Agent-based models of malaria transmission: A systematic review. Smith N, Trauer JM, Gambhir M, Richards JS, Maude RJ, Keith JM, Flegg JA. Malaria Journal. 2018 Aug 17;17(1):299. doi: 10.1186/s12936-018-2442-y.

2017

Modular programming for tuberculosis control, the “AuTuMN” platform. Trauer JM, Ragonnet R, Doan TN, McBryde ES. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2017 Aug 7;17(1):546. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2648-6.

Quantifying the effects of prior acetyl-salicylic acid on sepsis-related deaths: An individual patient data meta-analysis using propensity matching. Trauer JM, Muhi S, McBryde ES, Al Harbi SA, Arabi YM, Boyle AJ, Cartin-Ceba R, Chen W, Chen Y-T, Falcone M, Gajic O, Godsell J, Gong MN, Kor D, Lösche W, McAuley DF, O’Neal Jr HR, Osthoff M, Otto GP, Sossdorf M, Tsai M-J, Valerio-Rojas JC, van der Poll T, Violi F, Ware L, Widmer AF, Wiewel MA, Winning J, Eisen DP. Critical Care Medicine. 2017 Nov;45(11):1871-1879. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000002654.