Our Research Program

Modelling active case finding activities to achieve the post-2015 End TB Target

Investigators and project staff
A/Prof James Trauer, Dr Romain Ragonnet

Timeline
January 2018 – December 2021

Funding source
NHMRC

Background
Although the TB burden is gradually declining at the global level, the rate of decline is likely to fall far short of what is needed to achieve the highly ambitious WHO End TB post-2015 targets for control. Active case finding offers the opportunity to identify patients early and reduce transmission, bringing about more rapid control. However, it is resource intensive, and the optimal setting in which to deploy this strategy remains unclear.

Recent randomised controlled trials are shedding more light on the efficacy of this intervention, but how this is best translated to scaled-up programs across different international settings remains unclear.

Research activities
Project staff have already completed an extensive review of the evidence associated with TB natural history, published in Clinical Infectious Diseases, which is of critical importance to predicting the effect of active case finding interventions. The outputs from this review have now been used in a range of settings to model active case finding for improved TB control.

Outcomes from randomised controlled trials of TB case finding activities undertaken by close collaborators at the Woolcock Institute of Medical Research are now being used to predict the international impact of such activities on achieving the End TB Strategy goals.

Potential impact
These results will inform local TB control policy in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and are being cited in policy documents by the World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office. These ambitious programmatic responses and our findings of the likely future sustained response provide a roadmap towards achieving the ambitious post-2015 End TB Targets.

Contact
Romain.Ragonnet@monash.edu