Identifying optimal policies to increase active travel uptake

Ongoing

Governments across Australia continue to support walking and bike riding as part of the solution to urgent health, environmental and equity challenges. Despite the wide range of potential interventions available to policy-makers — from bike subsidies and workplace travel plans to education campaigns and local walking groups — decision-makers have limited evidence or guidance on how to prioritise or combine these approaches to maximum impact and cost-effectiveness. Without urgent action to address this knowledge and capability gap, decisions made today, in the absence of evidence, will have negative consequences on our ability to optimally design and implement healthier and sustainable cities for generations to come.

This project, funded by a VicHealth Impact research grant, will develop and deliver a first-of-its-kind policy decision-support tool that simulates complex combinations of interventions to help key decision-makers identify the most effective and equitable strategies to increase active travel uptake.

Travel decisions are influenced by a nuanced mix of factors, including confidence, habits, knowledge and social norms. The tool will model the human response to transport change: how different individuals, in different places, respond to a range of infrastructure, policy and behaviour change interventions, and what those responses mean for mobility, safety, health, equity, emissions and economic outcomes.

Conducted in partnership with the Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, the Municipal Association of Victoria, Victoria Walks and Bicycle Network, the tool will be co-designed to ensure it meets partner needs and supports real-world planning and investment decisions.

Using scenario modelling and deep reinforcement learning, the tool will allow policymakers to test the likely impact of different approaches based on specific goals, such as mobility outcomes, health gains, and cost-effectiveness.