What drives junior doctors to choose their medical specialty?

CHE RESEARCH BITES

By Susan Méndez, Anthony Scott and Peter Sivey

07 August, 2025

Many countries face a shortage of general practitioners (GPs) as more doctors choose to become specialists. Understanding why junior doctors make these career choices is crucial for health policy planning.

This Australian study followed 536 junior doctors for twelve years, starting in 2008, to see how their early career preferences influenced their eventual specialty choices. The researchers first surveyed the doctors about what mattered most to them in a medical career—things like salary, work-life balance, opportunities for research, performing procedures, and patient relationships.

Initially, doctors who prioritised higher earnings were more likely to avoid general practice and remain in hospital positions. However, this effect disappeared over time. After twelve years, salary preferences no longer predicted career paths. What proved more lasting were preferences related to using specific skills and abilities. Doctors who valued academic opportunities consistently avoided general practice throughout the study period. Those who enjoyed procedural work were much more likely to become surgeons.

The research suggests that whilst money motivates early career decisions, doctors eventually gravitate towards specialties that match their natural abilities and interests. This has important implications for medical education and workforce planning. Rather than simply adjusting salaries to attract doctors to certain specialties, policymakers might focus on ensuring medical training exposes students to diverse experiences, helping them discover where their skills and interests truly lie. This could lead to better matching between doctors and specialties, ultimately improving healthcare delivery.

Méndez SJ, Scott A, Sivey P. Junior doctors’ specialty choice: Stated and revealed preferences over more than a decade. Labour Economics. 2025 Jun 1;94:102697.

Find out more about Economic behaviour, incentives and preferences in health.

CHE Research Bites are short, easy-to-understand summaries of our recent academic papers highlighting new evidence and insights on topical issues in the health and healthcare sectors.

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