An explainability-oriented approach to manage dependent supply chain risks

Optimisation-based methods in supply chain risk management are effective at managing internal disruptions within individual supply chain nodes, but they fail to account for dependent disruptions that originate upstream and cascade across multi-echelon supply chain networks. Current forecasting models typically assume disruptions do not propagate downstream, which is unrealistic in today’s interconnected environment. As a result, industries lack a complete view of uncertainties affecting operational performance, resilience, and sustainability. This project addresses that gap by developing a fit-for-purpose solution that improves supply–demand accuracy through real-time visibility of material flows, capturing both internal and dependent disruptions.