Ratings & fleet analysis

The Used Car Safety Ratings are published in full via technical MUARC report, and summarised in a “Buyer’s Guide” brochure. The most recent Used Car Safety Ratings Buyer’s Guide brochure can be viewed here. Each MUARC report describes the calculation of updated ratings that measure the relative safety of vehicles in preventing severe injury to people involved in crashes. Links to these reports are provided below.

Aggressivity ratings

  • Cameron, M., Newstead, S. & Le, C.M. THE DEVELOPMENT AND ESTIMATION OF AGGRESSIVITY RATINGS FOR AUSTRALIAN PASSENGER VEHICLES BASED ON CRASHES DURING 1987-95, Report to the project steering committee of the MUARC vehicle safety projects using mass data analysis, March 1998.
  • Cameron, M., Newstead, S. & Le, C.M. RATING THE AGGRESSIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN PASSENGER VEHICLES TOWARDS OTHER VEHICLE OCCUPANTS AND UNPROTECTED ROAD USERS: Journal of Crash Prevention and Injury Control, Vol 1(2), pp. 129-141, 1999.


    Two measures of aggressivity of Australian passenger vehicles have been developed. The first measures the aggressivity to occupants of other cars. The second measures aggressivity to unprotected road users. These aggressivity ratings reflect the threat of severe injury to pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists by die make/model of vehicle colliding with them. This analysis was based on nearly 102,000 drivers involved in tow-away crashes with the makes/models which were the focus of the study and on nearly 22,000 injured pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists. The results suggest that crashworthiness and aggressivity are two different aspects of a vehicle's safety performance, with good performance on one dimension not necessarily being associated with good performance on the other.


Australia and EuroNCAP (SARAC)

  • Newstead, S., Delaney, A., Cameron, M. & Watson, L. (2006) STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INJURY OUTCOMES IN POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA AND CRASH BARRIER TEST RESULTS IN EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA, Proceedings Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, 25-27 October, Gold Coast, Queensland, Submitted Papers CD-ROM. See the Australian College of Road Safety publications database.


    This paper reports on the use of police reported crash data from Great Britain, and Germany to estimate injury risk and injury severity measures for European vehicles. The relationship between these measures and EuroNCAP test results is evaluated for vehicles tested under the EuroNCAP test program. Results using the combined German and UK real world crash data point to improving average vehicle crashworthiness with increasing EuroNCAP star rating.

  • Newstead, S., Delaney, A. & Cameron, M. USE OF IN-DEPTH DATA IN COMPARING EURONCAP AND REAL-WORLD CRASH RESULTS Report of Sub-tasks 2.3, Quality Criteria for the Safety Assessment of Cars based on Real-World Crashes (SARAC II), Project Number: SUB/B27020B-E3-S07.17321-2002, 2006.


    The aim of this study was to assess the suitability of available European in-depth crash data sources for comparing real world crash outcomes by body region and on a finer injury severity scale with results of EuroNCAP testing by body region. The suitability of two existing European databases (CCIS and PENDANT) for in-depth analysis were investigated.

  • Delaney, A., Newstead, S. & Cameron, M. ALTERNATIVE WEIGHTING OF NCAP SERIES TO IMPROVE THE RELATIONSHIP TO REAL-WORLD CRASHES Report of Sub-tasks 2.4, Quality Criteria for the Safety Assessment of Cars based on Real-World Crashes (SARAC II), Project Number: SUB/B27020B-E3-S07.17321-2002, 2006.


    This study examined the potential to improve the between EuroNCAP test results and injury outcome measured in real world crashes on a vehicle by vehicle basis. The results indicate that by re-weighting individual components of the overall EuroNCAP score or the components of the front or side impact EuroNCAP scores the relationship between the overall score, front impact or side impact scores and real world injury measures can be improved substantially.

  • Newstead, S., Delaney, A. & Cameron, M. A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF VARIOUS VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS ESTIMATORS THROUGH DATA SIMULATION Report of Sub-tasks 3.2, Quality Criteria for the Safety Assessment of Cars based on Real-World Crashes (SARAC II), Project Number: SUB/B27020B-E3-S07.17321-2002, 2006.


    Currently there exist a number of methods available for use in the estimation of vehicle safety ratings. The aim of this study was to relate each of these safety rating methods to a comprehensive theoretical framework that describes the process by which the crash data being analysed is generated. A key outcome of this study was to classify the methods into two broad classes with the benefits and limitations of each being clearly identified.


Crashworthiness ratings

  • Cameron M, Finch CF, Newstead SV, Le T, Graham A, Griffiths M, Pappas M, Haley J. Measuring crashworthiness: make/model ratings and the influence of Australian design rules for motor vehicle safety. Proc. IRCOBI 1995; 23: 297-310.


    This paper updates and extends the methods in a previous paper which gave crashworthiness ratings for makes/models of Australian cars manufactured during 1982-90. The new results used logistic regression to take into account a larger number of factors which were found to be strongly related to the injury risk and injury severity of drivers. There was a 47% reduction in the risk of serious injury for drivers involved in tow-away crashes while driving the post-1979 cars compared with those manufactured during the 1960's.

  • Cameron, M., Newstead, S., Le, T. & Finch C.F. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS AND YEAR OF MANUFACTURE. Royal Automobile Club of Victoria, Report No. TS 94/6, August 1994.

Relationship between NCAP and real-world crash outcomes

  • Newstead, S., Cameron, M., Skalova, M. and Mullan, N.: CORRELATION OF RESULTS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN NEW CAR ASSESSMENT PROGRAM WITH REAL CRASH DATA. Paper Number 96-S9-O-15, 15th International Conference on the Enhanced Safety Of Vehicles, Melbourne, May 1996.


    This paper assesses the relationship between Australian NCAP test results and data from real crashes by comparing the results of crashworthiness ratings to the outcomes of NCAP testing for vehicle models which have been assessed in both programs. Existing crashworthiness ratings based on all crash types have been used in the comparison, as well as crashworthiness ratings derived from crashes of specific types which are thought to be more typical of the crash types the NCAP program claims to represent. Comparison has been made not only with the raw NCAP measures but also with transformations and combinations of these which claim to estimate the probability of severe injury to a vehicle occupant in an NCAP type collision. The effect of vehicle mass in the relationship has also been investigated. A second stage of the study has examined the relationship between detailed injury data by body region recorded in insurance claim data and the corresponding measurements taken from the various body regions of the crash test dummies in the NCAP procedures.

  • Newstead, S. & Scully, J. POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANCAP RATINGS AND REAL WORLD DATA DERIVED CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS Proceedings 2011 Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, November, Perth, Australia. See the Australian College of Road Safety publications database.


    This paper presents the results of an analysis which reweights the ANCAP crash test elements into an overall score to significantly improve the relationship with relative vehicle crashworthiness estimated from real world crash data. Numerous studies have been conducted internationally comparing the ability of the vehicle safety rating summary used by ANCAP to predict vehicle crashworthiness performance in real world crashes. Although many of the studies have been able to show an association between the ANCAP rating and real world vehicle crashworthiness, the correlation between the two measures is far from perfect.

  • Newstead, S. & Cameron, M. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REAL CRASH BASED AND BARRIER TEST BASED VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS: A SUMMARY AND INTERPRETATION OF THREE RECENT STUDIES. Proceedings of the 2002 Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference, Adelaide, November 2002.


    Three major studies (Newstead & Cameron 1999; (Newstead, Farmer, Narayan & Cameron 2002; Newstead, Cameron & Narayan, 2001) have now been completed examining the relationship between vehicle safety ratings based on crash barrier testing with those obtained from analysis of real crash data, analysing real crash and barrier test data sources from Australia, the USA and Europe. This paper investigates global conclusions that can be drawn from these studies as well as discussing key differences. It goes on to relate the likely impacts of the observed similarities and differences in the two different ratings systems on consumer interpretation of parallel presentation of ratings from two different systems.

  • Newstead, S., Narayan, S., Cameron, M. & Farmer, C. U.S. CONSUMER CRASH TEST RESULTS AND INJURY RISK IN POLICE-REPORTED CRASHES. Traffic Injury Prevention Vol 4(2), pp113-127, 2003.


    This paper summarises the research presented in MUARC Report 191 which considered relationships between recent U.S. frontal crash test results from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and USNCAP, and real-world crash injury risk estimates computed from police-reported crash data from three U.S. states. Individually, results from the full-width and offset tests were not significantly correlated with the real-world injury risk estimates. Stronger relationships were found when a combination of overall ratings from the full-frontal and offset tests was used. However, the current results find only weak correlations between both full-front and offset frontal crash test performance and the real-world injury risk estimates.

  • Newstead, S. & Scully, J. PREDICTING THE USED CAR SAFETY RATINGS CRASHWORTHINESS RATING FROM ANCAP SCORES. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 309, 2012.


    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the correlation between vehicle secondary safety ratings developed from crash tests (ANCAP) and those developed using real world crash data (UCSR) could be improved. The analysis re-weighted the ACNAP test scores using logistic regression and then used these re-weighted scores with TAC claims data to investigate whether the re-weighted ANCAP scores reflected relationships that would be expected from existing knowledge of real world crashes and ANCAP crash tests. Analysis showed that the correlation between ANCAP scores and the UCSR crashworthiness estimates could be improved greatly by weighting the component ANCAP measures differently to the current ANCAP summary measure.

  • Newstead, S., Farmer, C., Narayan, S. & Cameron, M. U.S. CONSUMER CRASH TEST RESULTS AND INJURY RISK IN POLICE-REPORTED CRASHES. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 191, June 2002.


    This study considered relationships between recent U.S. frontal crash test results from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and USNCAP, and real-world crash injury risk estimates computed from police-reported crash data from three U.S. states. Individually, results from the full-width and offset tests were not significantly correlated with the real-world injury risk estimates. Stronger relationships were found when a combination of overall ratings from the full-frontal and offset tests was used. However, the current results find only weak correlations between both full-front and offset frontal crash test performance and the real-world injury risk estimates.

  • Newstead, S. & Cameron, M. CORRELATION OF RESULTS FROM THE NEW CAR ASSESSMENT PROGRAM WITH REAL CRASH DATA. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 115, June 1997.


    This study aimed to investigate the relationship between NCAP test results and data from real crashes in assessing relative occupant protection. A second stage of the project examined the relationship between injury severity patterns by body region and corresponding NCAP test results. A key finding of the study was that the results of the offset NCAP testing had a much stronger association with real crash outcomes than the results of full frontal NCAP testing.


Total secondary safety

  • Newstead, S., Watson, L., & Cameron, M. (2007). An Index For Rating the Total Secondary Safety of Vehicles from Real World Crash Data. Annual Proceedings / Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 51, 263–280.


    This study proposes a total secondary safety index for light passenger vehicles that rates the relative performance of vehicles in protecting both their own occupants and other road users in the full range of real world crash circumstances. The index estimates the risk of death or serious injury to key road users in crashes involving light passenger vehicles across the full range of crash types. The proposed index has been estimated from real world crash data from Australasia and was able to identify vehicles that have superior or inferior total secondary safety characteristics compared with the average vehicle.

  • Newstead, S., Delaney, A., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. A MODEL FOR CONSIDERING THE 'TOTAL SAFETY' OF THE LIGHT PASSENGER VEHICLE FLEET Proceedings 2004 Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference, 14-16 November, Perth, Western Australia, Vol 1, 11p.


    This paper summarises the research presented in MUARC Report 228 which aims to develop and apply a comprehensive model to consider the influence of the mix of vehicle types in the fleet on the total safety of the light passenger vehicle fleet in Australia. Key inputs to the model are estimates of the crashworthiness and aggressivity of light passenger vehicles in the key crash types representing the majority of crashes in which these vehicles are involved. Results of applying the model to the various scenarios point to how the vehicle fleet mix might best be manipulated in the future to optimise average safety outcomes.

  • Newstead, S., Keall, M. & Watson, L. RATING THE OVERALL SECONDARY SAFETY OF VEHICLES FROM REAL WORLD CRASH DATA: THE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND TOTAL SECONDARY SAFETY INDEX Accident Analysis and Prevention 43,3 (2011), 637–645.


    Various systems for rating secondary safety of particular makes and models of vehicles have been developed internationally. These measures generally evaluate crashworthiness (the ability of the vehicle to protect its own occupants in the event of a crash) separately from aggressivity (the harm a vehicle is liable to impose on other road users into which it crashes). This paper describes an approach using Australian and New Zealand data that combines these two facets of secondary safety into one ‘Total Secondary Safety Index’ estimated from real world crash outcomes.

  • Newstead, S. & Watson, L. AN INDEX FOR TOTAL SECONDARY SAFETY OF LIGHT PASSENGER VEHICLES ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 273, 2007.


    A total secondary safety index was successfully developed which summarises the combined crashworthiness and aggressivity performance of a vehicle, weighted by the relative importance of each component in real world crash circumstances, into a single integrated measure. Total secondary safety index estimates and their associated confidence limits were obtained for 357 vehicle models. They were sufficiently sensitive that they were able to identify 139 models of passenger cars, 4WDs, passenger vans and light commercial vehicles that have superior or inferior total secondary safety characteristics compared with the average vehicle.

  • Newstead, S., Delaney, A., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. A MODEL FOR CONSIDERING THE ‘TOTAL SAFETY’ OF THE LIGHT PASSENGER VEHICLE FLEET. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 228, August 2004.


    This report describes the results of research to develop and apply a comprehensive model to consider the influence of the mix of vehicle types on the total safety of the light passenger vehicle fleet in Australia. Key inputs to the model are estimates of the crashworthiness and aggressivity of light passenger vehicles in the key crash types representing the majority of crashes in which these vehicles are involved. Results of applying the model to the various scenarios point to how the vehicle fleet mix might best be manipulated in the future to optimise average safety outcomes.


Yearly UCSR Updates 1996 - current

Newstead, S., Watson, L., Keall, M., Cameron, M. & Rampollard, C. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2018 UPDATE: Australian and New Zealand crashes during 1987-2015. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 335, September 2018.

Newstead, S., Watson, L., Keall, M., Cameron, M. & Rampollard, C. TRENDS IN CRASHWORTHINESS OF THE NEW ZEALAND VEHICLE FLEET BY YEAR OF MANUFACTURE: 1964 TO 2016. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 335, September 2018.

Newstead, S., Watson, L., Keall, M. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2017 UPDATE: Australian and New Zealand crashes during 1987-2015.. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 330, August 2017.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. and Cameron, M. TRENDS IN CRASHWORTHINESS OF THE NEW ZEALAND VEHICLE FLEET BY YEAR OF MANUFACTURE 1964 TO 2015. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 330, August 2017.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2016 UPDATE: Australian and New Zealand crashes during 1987-2014. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 328, August 2016.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2016 UPDATE: Australian and New Zealand crashes during 1987-2014. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 328, August 2016.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. and Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2015 UPDATE. Australian and New Zealand crashes during 1987-2013. Monash University Accident Research Centre - Report No. 326, August 2015.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2015 UPDATE: Australian and New Zealand crashes during 1987-2013. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 326, August 2015.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2014 UPDATE. Australian and New Zealand crashes during 1987-2012. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 323, August 2014.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2013 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2011. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 318, 2013.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2013 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2011. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 318, 2013.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2012 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2010. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 313, 2012.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2012 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2010. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 313, 2012.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2011 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2009. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 304, 2011.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2011 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2009. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 304, 2011.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2010 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2008. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 297, August 2010.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2010 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2008. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 297, August 2010.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2009 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2007. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 287, 2009.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2009 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2007. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 287, 2009.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2008 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2006. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 280, 2008.

Newstead, S., Watson, L. & Cameron, M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2008 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2006. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 280, 2008.

Newstead, S.V., Cameron, M.H. & Watson, L.M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2007 UPDATE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2005 + TRENDS IN CRASHWORTHINESS OF THE NEW ZEALAND VEHICLE FLEET BY YEAR OF MANUFACTURE: 1964 TO 2005. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 266, 2007.

Newstead, S.V., Cameron, M.H. & Watson, L.M. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2007 UPDATE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2005 + TRENDS IN CRASHWORTHINESS OF THE NEW ZEALAND VEHICLE FLEET BY YEAR OF MANUFACTURE: 1964 TO 2005. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Supplement to Report No. 266, 2007.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M. & Watson, L. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2006 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2004. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 248, 2006.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M. & Watson, L. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2005 UPDATE. AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2003. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 241, 2005.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M., Watson, L. & Delaney, A. VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS AND AGGRESSIVITY RATINGS AND CRASHWORTHINESS BY YEAR OF VEHICLE MANUFACTURE: VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-2002, QUEENSLAND, WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1991-2002. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 222, June 2004.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M., Watson, L. & Delaney, A. VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS AND AGGRESSIVITY RATINGS AND CRASHWORTHINESS BY YEAR OF VEHICLE MANUFACTURE: VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-2000, QUEENSLAND AND WESTERN AUSTRALIA CRASHES DURING 1991-2000. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 196, January 2003.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M. & Le, C.M. VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS AND AGGRESSIVITY RATINGS AND CRASHWORTHINESS BY YEAR OF VEHICLE MANUFACTURE: VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-98, QUEENSLAND CRASHES DURING 1991-98. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 171, July 2000.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M. & Le, C M. VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS AND CRASHWORTHINESS BY YEAR OF VEHICLE MANUFACTURE: VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-97, QUEENSLAND CRASHES DURING 1991-96. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 150, March 1999.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M. & Le, C M. VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS AND CRASHWORTHINESS BY YEAR OF VEHICLE MANUFACTURE: VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-96. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 128, March 1998.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M. & Le, C M. VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS AND CRASHWORTHINESS BY YEAR OF VEHICLE MANUFACTURE: VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-95. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 107, March 1997.

Newstead, S., Cameron, M. & Skalova, M. VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS: VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-94. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 92, June 1996.


Other Ratings & Fleet Analysis publications

In addition to the updated yearly ratings listed above, other publications within the ‘Ratings and fleet analysis’ research theme are below:

  • Keall, M. & Newstead, S. (2016) DEVELOPMENT OF A METHOD TO RATE THE PRIMARY SAFETY OF VEHICLES USING LINKED NEW ZEALAND CRASH AND VEHICLE LICENSING DATA Traffic Injury Prevention, Vol 17, Issue 2, pp151-158.


    This study aimed to explore different approaches to primary safety estimation, identifying which approaches (if any) may be most valid and most practical. Data analysed consisted of crash data and motor vehicle registration data for the period 2003 to 2012: 21,643,864 observations (representing vehicle-years) and 135,578 crashed vehicles. It was found that excluding young drivers (aged 25 and under) from all primary safety estimates attenuated some high risks estimated for make/model combinations favoured by young people.

  • Newstead, S.V. & D’Elia, A. Does vehicle colour influence crash risk?, Safety Science Vol 48, Issue 10, 2010, pp. 1327-1338.


    The major objective of this study was to assess the relationship between vehicle colour and crash risk through the analysis of real crash outcomes described in Police reported crash data. Results of the analysis identified a clear statistically significant relationship between vehicle colour and crash risk. Compared to white vehicles, a number of colours were associated with higher crash risk. These colours were black, blue, grey, green, red and silver.

  • Newstead, S & D’Elia, A. AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VEHICLE COLOUR AND CRASH RISK. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 263, 2007.


    This study assessed the relationship between vehicle colour and crash risk through the analysis of real crash outcomes described in mass crash data reported to police in two Australian states.  Results showed a clear statistically significant relationship between vehicle colour and crash risk. The key finding was that compared to white vehicles, a number of colours – black, blue, grey, green, red and silver - were associated with higher crash risk.

  • Newstead, S., Delaney, A., Cameron, M. & Watson, L. STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INJURY OUTCOMES IN POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA AND CRASH BARRIER TEST RESULTS IN EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA Report of Sub-tasks 2.1 and 2.2, Quality Criteria for the Safety Assessment of Cars based on Real-World Crashes (SARAC II), Project Number: SUB/B27020B-E3-S07.17321-2002, 2006.


    This study used police-reported crash data from Great Britain, France and Germany to estimate injury risk and injury severity measures for European vehicles. The relationship between these measures and EuroNCAP test results was evaluated for vehicles tested under the EuroNCAP test program. The study also investigated the correlation between EuroNCAP protocol test results and injury outcome in real crash data from Australia and New Zealand.

  • Delaney, A., Newstead, S. & Cameron, M. (2005) A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING THE RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS OF VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS MEASURES THROUGH DATA SIMULATION. Proceedings Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, 14-16 November, Wellington, New Zealand, Submitted Papers CD-ROM, 11p.


    Internationally, five key measures of vehicle crashworthiness have been developed that attempt to measure the risk of injury or serious injury to a vehicle driver involved in a two-car collision.  This paper aims to extend existing theoretical comparisons of the safety measures by examining the relative effectiveness of each measure using simulated crash data with known properties. A theoretical framework is developed that describes the process of injury data generation in terms of injury risk and injury severity.

  • Newstead, S., Delaney, A. & Watson, L. VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM COMBINED AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND REAL CRASH DATA: PILOT STUDY PHASE 5. Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 203, May 2003.


    Stages 1 to 4 of the New Zealand vehicle safety ratings pilot study, completed previously, established the availability and suitability of New Zealand crash and registration data sources for estimating vehicle safety ratings using combined Australian and New Zealand crash data. Analysis presented in this report has been successful in producing a set of vehicle safety ratings based on combined Australian and New Zealand mass crash data sources suitable for publishing as consumer information in both countries.

  • Laine, V., Ernvall, T., Cameron, M., and Newstead, S., AGGRESSIVITY VARIABLES AND THEIR SENSITIVITY IN CAR AGGRESSIVITY RATINGS Paper presented to the 17th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles, Amsterdam, June 2001.


    This paper presents a review of possible parameters that effect on vehicle aggressivity ratings and also gives a definition of aggressivity of vehicle models. The selection of the most important aggressivity variables in vehicle aggressivity measures is based on expert evaluations and detailed variable analyses. Further, the sensitivity of the most important aggressivity variables in vehicle aggressivity measures is examined using logistic regression analysis.

  • Cameron, M., Les, M., Newstead, S., Narayan, S., Ernvall, T., and Laine, V., Langwieder, K. EMPIRICAL COMPARISON OF VEHICLE AGGRESSIVITY RATING SYSTEMS Paper presented to the 17th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles, Amsterdam, June 2001.


    This paper describes an empirical comparison of seven vehicle aggressivity rating methods in order to identify the most satisfactory vehicle aggressivity 'rating' system. Vehicles were distinguished by make and model, and the aggressivity of each model was estimated from data on real two-vehicle crashes. For comparison purposes, two common crash databases were used for estimation of ratings by each method: Police-reported tow-away crash data from three US states, and accident compensation claims from Finland. New methods of vehicle aggressivity rating were also proposed and tested.

  • Cameron, M., Narayan, S., Newstead, S., Ernvall, T., Laine, V. and Langwieder, K. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL VEHICLE SAFETY RATING SYSTEMS Paper presented to the 17th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles, Amsterdam, June 2001.


    The paper examines the application of six vehicle safety rating systems to a common crash database, for the purpose of making a comparison of the rating results produced by each system and to develop an understanding of the differences which emerge. The rating results are compared based on rank order of crashworthiness of vehicle models, and relationships between each pair of results. Finally, the results with their respective confidence limits are used to classify each vehicle model as having inferior, not defined or superior crashworthiness, and the classification is used to compare the relative discrimination of the methods.

  • Newstead, S. V., & Cameron, M. H. (2001). Trends in Australian vehicle crashworthiness by year of vehicle manufacture within vehicle market groups. Proc. IRCOBI 2001; 29: 39-50.


    This paper measures trends in the crashworthiness of the Australian passenger vehicle fleet by year of vehicle manufacture within four market groups. Results demonstrated clearly different trends in vehicle crashworthiness by year of manufacture from 1982 to 1998 between different vehicle market sectors of the Australian vehicle fleet, particularly for small and medium size vehicles.

  • Newstead, S. Cameron, M. & Narayan, S. CORRELATION BETWEEN EUROPEAN CRASH DATA AND CRASH BARRIER TEST RESULTS FROM EURONCAP. Report on the European Commission funded project “Quality Criteria for the Safety Assessment of Cars based on Real-World Crashes”, Sub-Task 2.2, carried out by the European Safety Ratings Advisory Committee (SARAC), August 2001.
  • Cameron, M., Newstead, S., Narayan, S., Ernvall, T. & Laine, V. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL CRASHWORTHINESS RATING SYSTEMS. Report on the European Commission funded project “Quality Criteria for the Safety Assessment of Cars based on Real-World Crashes”, Sub-Task 1.6, carried out by the European Safety Ratings Advisory Committee (SARAC), August 2001.
  • Cameron, M., Les, M., Newstead, S., Narayan, S., Ernvall, T. & Laine, V. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL AGGRESSIVITY RATING SYSTEMS. Report on the European Commission funded project “Quality Criteria for the Safety Assessment of Cars based on Real-World Crashes”, Sub-Task 3.4, carried out by the European Safety Ratings Advisory Committee (SARAC), August 2001.
  • Newstead, S. REVIEW OF THE NEW ZEALAND LAND TRANSPORT SAFETY AUTHORITY FEASIBILITY STUDY INTO PRODUCING CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS FOR NEW ZEALAND VEHICLES - Report to the New Zealand Land Transport Safety Authority. Monash University Accident Research Centre, August 2000.