Royal transition central to Thai unrest
Professor James Chin
by James Chin
Thailand has just gone through another military coup d’etat — although this time the military is asking the world to believe it’s not a coup but simply martial law. But it’s worth remembering the army has staged 11 successful coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, with the most recent in 2006.
The military claims it staged the takeover to force politicians to negotiate a political settlement, with the trigger being the forced removal of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra by the Constitutional Court this month.
For the past eight years, the country has been polarised by the fight between the Red-shirts and the Yellow-shirts. Red represents the supporters of Yingluck and her brother, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, while Yellow represents the urban middle-class, which wants to get rid of the Shinawatra family, whom they accused of being corrupt closet republicans. But the problem for the Yellow-shirts is that they cannot get rid of the Shinawatras via the ballot box. Every time they hold an election, the Shinawatra family win because they have the support of the rural poor.
So the Yellow-shirts have been holding year-long demonstrations asking for the establishment of a non-elected government to bring back “democracy”. More than 30 people have died in the rallies and hundreds were injured when the Red and the Yellow supporters clashed on the streets of Bangkok.
Behind the public demonstrations, the bigger picture is all about the political transition that nobody in Thailand dares to talk about openly. It’s not about the road to democracy — rather it’s about the political transition that will have to come when the present King of Thailand, Bhumibol Adulyadej, dies. The king has been ill for several years and, in fact, has been moved into a hospital in Bankok for long periods.
King Bhumibol, 86, is the world’s longest reigning monarch, having been on the throne for 68 years. Unlike monarchs in the West, he is highly revered by the Thais and anyone, including foreigners, can be charged with lese majeste (the crime of violating the majesty) if they utter a single word against him or the royal institution.
Australians have been charged under the law, the most recent being Harry Nicolaides from Melbourne.
Mr Nicolaides’s offence was an offending passage in his self-published book, Verisimilitude, in which a Thai crown prince’s private life was painted in an unflattering light. He was sentenced to three years in jail but deported after being pardoned by the king.
In a nutshell, the Red-shirts represent the poor, while the Yellows represent the establishment who would like to retain all the glory of the monarchy and maintain its elite control over Thai politics.
The Reds under Thaksin are widely suspected of being closet anti-monarchists who would like to establish a constitutional monarchy. While on paper King Bhumibol has very limited political powers, in practice he yields personal power more like that of an absolute monarch.
That has created a problem for the establishment. The king’s only son, Prince Vajiralongkorn, is heir apparent but many in Bangkok’s elite think he may not have sufficient gravitas to rule.
The military, meanwhile, always a key factor in Thai politics, has been strangely quiet about the succession issue. Hence the present moves to remove the Shinawatra siblings from power is all about who gets to shape the political transition at the palace when the king dies.
The military deposed the brother, Thaksin, in 2006 and eight years later, they are getting rid of his sister, Yingluck.
Unfortunately, this time the military has made a strategic blunder. By showing its political hand this early, it is almost certain that they have increased Thaksin’s control over the rural vote. When the next general election comes around, scheduled for Augustbut unlikely to be held because of the coup, the gap between the urban and the rural Thais will simply return another electoral victory for the Shinawatra siblings.
That was exactly what happened in February — the Shinawatras’ party won the election before it was annulled by the courts. The Bangkok elite simply could not get rid of the Shinawatras via democratic means.
The option the military is currently pursuing — a government of national unity where Thaksin’s influence can be curbed from the inside — can happen only with the direct intervention of the ailing king.
That is also not a solution given that the king cannot force the antagonists to keep to any agreement negotiated under his watch once he is gone.
In today’s Thailand, the saying “the more things change, the more they remain the same” is the absolute truth.
Professor James Chin works in the School of Arts and Social Sciences at Monash University’s Malaysian campus.
This article has appeared in the Herald Sun.