Back to the future: Turnbull, Abbott and the Liberal Party leadership
By Dr Zareh Ghazarian
Things were going so well for Tony Abbott. Julia Gillard was on the back foot trying to defend the seemingly unpopular Carbon Tax, opinion polls showed the Opposition had overtaken the Government on the important two-party preferred measure, and public support for Abbott’s leadership was growing. But these ‘good times’ for Mr Abbott and the Coalition may very quickly unravel.
The problem for the Liberal Party seems to be internal instability caused by key individuals - in particular, former leader Malcolm Turnbull. He has been criticised in a leaked letter for being absent during a tactically important division in the House of Representatives.
But there are deeper issues here than simply missing a vote in Parliament. What we are seeing is a fundamental division within the Liberal Party based on policies and ideas.
As Liberal Party leader, Mr Turnbull promoted a more socially progressive brand of politics and was a great believer in actively tackling climate change. This approach proved to be his downfall as Mr Abbott, who replaced him, promised to pursue a more socially conservative suite of policies. Moreover, Mr Abbott was on the record as being less than enamoured with Mr Turnbull’s environmental policies.
The Liberal Party has grappled with these sorts of divisions in the past, especially when it has been in Opposition. The party was almost paralysed by leadership battles between Andrew Peacock and John Howard in the 1980s, with Mr Peacock holding more socially progressive ideals while Mr Howard pursued socially conservative policies.
The old adage that ‘disunity is death’ rang true and voters steered clear of the Liberal Party throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. It was only when the party appeared to present a more unified image that voters returned to supporting the Coalition from 1996 until 2007.
There is the potential for the Liberal Party to once again be derailed by leadership divisions. On this front, Mr Turnbull is increasingly being seen as the leader-in-exile. As the Shadow Minister for Communications and Broadband, Mr Turnbull has continued to be active in debates outside his portfolio, especially concerning climate change. This has not only continued to boost his public profile, but has also contributed to the idea that the Coalition is indeed divided.
The next election is almost two years away, but opinion polls show that the government is unpopular and that the Coalition would win an election if it was held today. Mr Abbott, who was until recently often seen to be a polarising figure, is now in the box seat to be the next Prime Minister.
With this backdrop it is understandable for some Liberal Party figures, such as Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey, to position themselves as leadership contenders. If they were to become leader at just the right time they could end up being the next prime minister of Australia.
The challenge for the Liberal Party, and Mr Abbott in particular, will be to try and manage the ambition of Turnbull, Hockey and others and keep the focus on presenting the party as an alternative government to Labor. The Liberal Party only needs to look back to the 1980s and early 1990s to be reminded of where a disunited party ends up.
Dr Zareh Ghazarian is a lecturer in the School of Political and Social Inquiry and the co-author, with Dr Nick Economou, of Australian Politics for Dummies.