Alan Anthony Leslie POWELL (1936 - 2025)

Failure, they say, is the key to success. In 1959, Alan Powell failed a maths subject at university, but went on to become one of the sharpest minds in the field of econometrics.

Alan, who has died aged 88, was widely regarded as the main founder of econometrics in Australia – a rapidly expanding mathematical branch of economics in which statistical methods are used to quantify data and turn theoretical models into useful tools for policymaking – and was instrumental in the establishing the Econometrics department at Monash University.

Although he was just about to start work at Queen’s University in Ontario, Canada, Alan switched to Monash at the eleventh hour. He was recruited initially as a senior lecturer in 1965 by his old mentor from the University of Sydney, Professor Fred Gruen, who described him as a man of “outstanding ability” and “very considerable originality.”

Upon his arrival, Alan joined the team headed by Professor Gruen which focused on long-term projections of Australian agricultural supply and demand. He was subsequently promoted to the position of Reader in 1966 and became foundation Professor of Econometrics two years later. Alan achieved international recognition for his work on the estimation of consumer demand and producer supply systems. In 1975, he took a fractional appointment as a senior consultant to the Industries Assistance Commission (which later merged into the Productivity Commission) in Canberra.

After being appointed director of the Federal Government’s inter-agency IMPACT Project in 1975, his research was almost exclusively in the area of applied general equilibrium modelling for Australia and in Australian economic policy analysis. In collaboration with Professor Peter Dixon (who became a Sir John Monash Distinguished Professor), he developed the ORANI, a general equilibrium model of the Australian economy widely used by academics and economists in both government and private sectors. He was appointed to a personal Chair in Econometrics in 1991.

Alan Anthony Leslie Powell was born in Sydney in 1937 to parents Leslie and Florence (née Jones).  He attended St Aloysius College and went on to the University of Sydney, where he graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Agriculture in 1959. He missed out on a first class degree because of his active interest in student affairs, including the production of the student newspaper.

In 1962 he obtained his PhD in agricultural economics, focussing on the effects of drought on the wool industry. After leaving Sydney, he lectured in economics at the University of Adelaide before moving to the University of Chicago in 1964 for postdoctoral work. At that time, there was a general shortage of economists with mathematical and statistical competence in Australia so Alan needed little persuasion to eventually return home, lured by the excitement of opportunity.

His stellar achievements were suitably recognised throughout his career. In 1983, Alan was a joint recipient (with Professor Dixon) of the research medal of the Royal Society of Victoria in recognition of the contribution of the IMPACT Project to social science research. In 1988, he achieved the rare distinction for an econometrician outside the United States of being elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society – one of only four such Fellows in Australia. He was also a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia and received the Distinguished Fellowship Award of the Economic Society of Australia in 1998.

Alan was appointed a Member of the Order of Australia (AM) in 1993, received the title of Emeritus Professor at Monash in 2000 and was awarded an honorary doctorate in economics two years later.

In recognition of his distinguished service to their Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), the Center for Global Trade Analysis at Purdue University in Indiana established the Alan A. Powell Award in 1995 – conferring the award annually since then to honour outstanding contributions to the advisory board of the GTAP, a global network of researchers and policy makers conducting quantitative analysis of international policy issues.

Other posts he held during his lifetime included being a visiting economist at the World Bank (1971-1973), an external examiner and advisor at the National University of Malaysia in 1975 and Ritchie Chair of Economic Research at the University of Melbourne (1979-1991).

Alan authored and co-authored numerous papers in international journals as well as a collection of books, with Patterns in Household Demand and Saving regarded as a seminal work in the area of consumer demand behaviour.

He married Kathleen Noela Motum, with whom he had three sons and a daughter.  After Noela’s death in 1984, he married Joan Frances Cheers.  In his spare time he liked bushwalking and bird watching.

Edited version of article published November 12, 2025 and in The Insider edition of November 20, 2025.