Dr. Ailie Gallant - Honours Projects

Wind droughts in Australia

Supervisor: Ailie Gallant
Field of Study: Climate science, geographical science, atmospheric science

As we move toward net zero emissions, we are becoming increasingly dependent on wind energy as a crucial part of the energy mix. Wind droughts are prolonged periods of time (multiple days to weeks) where windspeeds remain below the thresholds needed for turbines to produce electricity. This becomes particularly problematic when coupled with periods of high electricity demand, typically with very high or low temperatures, leading to energy droughts (i.e. energy shortfall). This project will investigate the occurrence of wind droughts in Australia, including sensitivity to various definitions, and coincidence with periods of high demand.

Opportunities associated with this project include:

• Eligible to apply for an Honours scholarship with the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century (competitive scholarship of $7500 for one year, or pro rata for part-time students)
• Consultation and presentation of results to industry partners

Quantifying damaging high-impact weather events for climate assessment

Supervisor: Ailie Gallant
Field of Study: Climate science, geographical science, atmospheric science

Weather-derived hazards such as floods, severe storms, bushfire, heatwaves and droughts cause significant damage and billions in insurance losses every year. Some of these events are becoming more common with climate change, and, anecdotally, it seems though changes in these damaging events are becoming increasingly common. However, no study has yet developed a multi-hazard framework for quantifying these changes. This project will develop a “High-Impact Weather Index” that aims to define damaging weather events (i.e. events that cause significant economic and social harms) and combine them in a way that is useful for establishing how these events are changing. The study will examine weather data, but will also include socio-economic information to establish if weather events are changing in general, or whether it is also an aspect of exposure and vulnerability (i.e. more people being affected, or vulnerable populations being affected) that is leading to the observed changes.

Opportunities associated with this project include:

• Eligible to apply for an Honours scholarship with the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century (competitive scholarship of $7500 for one year, or pro rata for part-time students)

Snowmaking potential for climate change adaptation in Victorian alpine resorts

Supervisor: Ailie Gallant
Field of Study: Climate science, geographical science, atmospheric science

Climate change is expected to adversely affect the alpine ski resorts of southeastern Australia. With relatively low elevations, and situated in relatively low latitudes, maximum snow depths have been declining since the 1990s due to increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall in the winter months. Victorian resorts are adapting to these changes using snowmaking and snow factories, and, perhaps counterintuitively, despite daytime warming, drier conditions can also be related to reductions in minimum temperatures, conducive to snowmaking.

This project will look at snowmaking potential in Victorian ski resorts to determine its potential as a climate adaptation mechanism into the future.

Opportunities associated with this project include:

• Eligible to apply for an Honours scholarship with the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century (competitive scholarship of $7500 for one year, or pro rata for part-time students)
• Consultation and presentation of results to industry partners

Changes in the surface-rain potential of mid-latitude cyclones during droughts

Supervisor: Ailie Gallant
Field of Study: Atmospheric science, climate science, geographical science

Changes to rainfall from mid-latitude cyclones and ‘east coast lows’ are primarily responsible for periods of drought in southeast Australia and perhaps southwest Western Australia. While these rainfall changes are associated with some changes to occurrence of these weather systems, changes to the amount of rainfall associated with each system has also been flagged as a key factor contributing to rainfall decline during drought. However, it’s unclear exactly why rainfall from these systems changes during drought periods. This study will focus on the factors leading to changes in the surface-rainfall potential of these systems, primarily comparing the systems’ precipitable water content (i.e. how much moisture there is available to make rain) with other factors such as their translational speed to determine why these systems rain less during drought.

Opportunities associated with this project include:

• Eligible to apply for an Honours scholarship with the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century (competitive scholarship of $7500 for one year, or pro rata for part-time students)

Forecast skill of heavy rainfall events in southeast Australia during agriculturally sensitive times of year 

Supervisor: Ailie Gallant
Field of Study: Atmospheric science, climate science

Heavy rainfall events stemming from mid-latitude cyclones and ‘east coast lows’ are responsible for the majority of rainfall in southeast Australia. These rain-bearing systems are most important during key cropping and growing periods of crop cycles. For example, germination of the winter wheat crop in southeast Australia requires an “autumn break”, which heavy rainfall event on the order of 30mm of surface rainfall to kickstart growth. This project will examine skill in existing weather models to predict the occurrence of these events, and the rainfall they produce. Focus will be primarily on forecast lead times of up to 1-3 weeks.

Opportunities associated with this project include:

• Eligible to apply for an Honours scholarship with the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century (competitive scholarship of $7500 for one year, or pro rata for part-time students)
• Consultation and presentation of results to industry partners

Exploring Observed Wind Variability and Implications for Renewable Energy Modelling

Supervisors: Rachael Isphording and Ailie Gallant
Field of Study: Atmospheric science, climate science, data science, mathematics, computer science

Australia is rapidly moving towards an energy system powered by wind and solar. To make this possible, we need to understand how well different climate datasets capture small-scale features of winds that are pertinent to reliable energy production. One of the most widely used sources is reanalysis data—a gridded product that combines weather observations and climate models. In this project, you will compare reanalysis winds with in-situ measurements from weather stations, weather balloons, and towers to help the climate community reconcile a major source of uncertainty in climate-energy studies. You will also investigate how different quantitative methods affect these comparisons across regions and different landscapes. This work will provide foundational insights and best-practice guidance for applying reanalysis data in renewable energy studies.

Opportunities associated with this project include:

• Eligible to apply for an Honours scholarship with the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century (competitive scholarship of $7500 for one year, or pro rata for part-time students)
• Consultation and presentation of results to industry partners

The cultural value of weather in modern Australia and implications with climate change

Supervisors: Ailie Gallant and Megan Farrelly
Field of Study: Climate science, social science

Australia values weather as part of our cultural identity. From Australia being a “land of droughts and flooding rains”, to Queensland being “Beautiful one day, perfect the next”, Melbourne’s “four seasons in one day”. Climate change has the potential to affect this identity as the weather changes. This project will use social science methods to establish the cultural value of weather in several Australian cities, and will use this information to quantify cultural climate indices to assess how these values might change with climate change.

Opportunities associated with this project include:

• Eligible to apply for an Honours scholarship with the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century (competitive scholarship of $7500 for one year, or pro rata for part-time students)

Abrupt transitions from drought to heavy rainfall (‘weather whiplash events’)

Supervisors: Pallavi Goswami, Ailie Gallant and Rachael Isphording
Field of Study: Climate science, atmospheric science, hydrology

How likely is it to expect a heavy rainfall event when we are in the middle of a severe drought? Regions in Australia can see abrupt transitions from being in severe rainfall deficiencies for months at a stretch to suddenly experiencing a heavy downpour that can sometimes also lead to flash flooding. Such weather whiplashes pose a challenge to water managers and can have both positive and negative impacts on the ground. Further, we know little about what these events will look like in the future. This project will work towards getting a better grip on our understanding of these events to see if Australia is more likely to experience such rainfall flip-flop events in the future.

Opportunities associated with this project include:

• Eligible to apply for an Honours scholarship with the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century (competitive scholarship of $7500 for one year, or pro rata for part-time students)
• Consultation and presentation of results to government and industry partners