Prof. Julie Arblaster - Honours Projects

Investigating the impact of changing fire-management practices on northern Australia rainfall trends

Investigating the impact of changing fire-management practices on northern Australia rainfall trends Northern Australian rainfall has increased significantly over the past 30-50 years, yet the drivers of this increase are unclear. This project will investigate how changes in fire-management practices and associated land-cover changes may have contributed to these rainfall trends. Indigenous fire-management practices, which involve setting small, controlled fires early in the dry season, reducing fuel loads and preventing intense late-season fires, can alter the landscape on year-to-year and longer timescales, with feedback onto the atmosphere and potentially rainfall. Using model experiments which incorporate these changes in historical fire-management practices, the sensitivity of rainfall trends to land-use changes will be investigated.

Understanding decadal variations in monsoon-ENSO connections

Monsoons are known to be significantly impacted by the El Nino Southern Oscillation, yet monsoon-ENSO connections vary in strength on decadal timescales. Given half the world's population live in a monsoon region, improved predictions of monsoon rains is of critical importance. In collaboration with researchers at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (USA), this project will explore the mechanisms by which these relationships vary in observations and climate models in the context of present day and future predictions.

The semi-annual oscillation in high resolution climate models

The semi-annual oscillation (SAO) involves a twice-annual expansion and contraction of the circumpolar atmospheric trough over the Southern Ocean around Antarctica and can impact the development of El Nino events. This project will evaluate how the latest climate models reproduce the SAO and its interactions with the tropical regions. Recent studies have suggested changes in the winds and pressure over the Southern Ocean play a critical role in tropical sea surface temperature changes, hence understanding the simulation of the SAO could help elucidate the mechanisms through which the polar and tropical regions are connected.

Contact Julie Arblaster for further information